“This is something to watch very closely.”

Lebanese soldiers escort Russian nationals during their arrival at the Lebanese border today. The Russians were evacuated from Damascus.

Jamal Saidi/Reuters

By The Christian Science Monitor

MOSCOW

Russia began a small-scale evacuation of about 100 of its citizens from Syria Tuesday, in what experts warn could at any moment develop into a huge air-and-sealift of the up-to-40,000 Russians and their dependents believed to be in the war-torn country.

Russian media reported that officials from the Russian Embassy in Beirut safely escorted three busloads of Russians, mainly women and children, out of Syria on Tuesday. Two planes sent to Lebanon by Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Services will airlift about 100 people to Moscow, reports say.

The evacuation is being characterized as a limited operation aimed at bringing out a few people who have requested it. Without offering any further explanation, Russian official sources say the numbers of Russian citizens requesting repatriation has actually fallen, from about 1,000 last October to less than 100 in December.

But under the guise of ongoing war games in the eastern Mediterranean, the Russian Navy has, since last summer, maintained a squadron of warships. That squadron includes several huge amphibious assault vessels capable of carrying thousands of people, within a few hours sailing time of the Russian Naval supply facility in Tartus, Syria.

Earlier this month the fleets were rotated, and another squadron with at least five big troop transports was sent out to the region.

Looking for signs

The move is being closely read by Western experts for signs that Moscow’s long-standing position of support for Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad might be wavering, or that the Russian government anticipates his imminent downfall.

Experts say that, until we see those big transport ships moving in toward Tartus, we shouldn’t assume any change in Russia’s stance.

“The Russian authorities have already evacuated part of their diplomatic staff. Moscow is getting ready for a possible worsening of the situation and is taking preventive steps,” says Vladimir Sotnikov, expert with the Center for International Security at the official Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow.

Experts say Russia has already closed its consulate in Syria’s embattled main commercial center, Aleppo, and most Russian companies working in the country have long since withdrawn their own personnel.

via Start of something big? Russia pulls a hundred citizens from Syria. – CSMonitor.com.

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